Strategy
ONE-SIGNAL uses proprietary sentiment indicators to read market psychology — then translates that reading into one structured daily signal across five major asset classes.
Start nowNot financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Process
Every signal follows the same three-stage process — from data collection through to delivery in your inbox before the NYSE open.
Each day, the system collects and weights multiple sentiment and positioning indicators across each asset. The data inputs cover options markets, futures positioning, and crowd psychology measures.
When sentiment reaches extremes — excessive fear or excessive greed — the system flags a contrarian opportunity. The output is one directional bias: LONG or SHORT. No ambiguity, no optionality.
The signal arrives before the NYSE open with a defined entry (open), defined exit (close), and a pre-set stop loss. You execute through your own broker. No discretion required.
Methodology
Markets are not moved by fundamentals alone. They are moved by fear and greed — two forces that create measurable, repeatable patterns in price and positioning data.
Our core principle: when the crowd is maximally stretched in one direction, the conditions for a reversal are highest. This is contrarian positioning — systematic in execution, grounded in decades of market research.
The methodology was developed by Ara Yalmanian over 20+ years in wealth and asset management. It has been refined continuously and is applied to the same capital it was built to protect.
Signals are generated by reading sentiment from the outside — not reacting to it from within. That distinction is everything.
In the quest to get rich quickly, capital markets often become very attractive for many individuals. Many newcomers have a success story in mind, in which they have assigned the hero role to themselves. Unfortunately, the reality is different: many individuals leave the stock market with a lot of disappointment after realising big losses.
Nevertheless, capital markets remain full of excitement and adventure — but above all, they are the best teacher one can find if one is persistent and adaptive enough. Beginners enter the market greedy for money, success, and recognition. Most people leave the markets disillusioned and with the wrong conclusions, without getting anything in return for their losses.
The range of the market psychology cycle — between euphoria and the emotional apocalypse — is the same for everyone. Those who work on themselves in the process can successfully pursue the profession of trader or full-time investor. The vast majority of part-time market participants will never be able to fully exploit the market and risk-reward opportunities in their favour.
ONE-SIGNAL was designed for these people.
Warren Buffett put it best: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." This philosophy sits at the core of value investing. Many contrarians focus on uncovering intrinsic value — buying when the market price is at or below that value, selling when it exceeds it. But here's the irony: as more investors adopt this strategy, a new form of herd behaviour emerges.
Being a contrarian is less about strategy and more about mindset. It's rooted in independent thinking — questioning trends when others blindly follow them. Contrarians aren't necessarily outsiders. They can be part of the system but are willing to break away when logic and analysis point elsewhere. It's a mix of bravery, discipline, and adaptability.
For genuine contrarians, sentiment indicators are the most valuable tools. While technical and fundamental analysis focus on what has happened or what should happen, sentiment tells us what people believe is happening — and how they're acting on those beliefs. Unlike media opinions, sentiment indicators capture positioning backed by real capital. Three key types:
Sentiment surveys (AAII, NAAIM): Weekly polls gauging investor outlook — bullish, bearish, or neutral — based on actual portfolio positioning. VIX (Volatility Index): Often called the "fear gauge," it reflects expected market volatility based on options pricing. High values often coincide with fear-driven selloffs — prime hunting ground for contrarians. Put/Call Ratio: Tracks the ratio of bearish (put) to bullish (call) options. Extreme readings signal market tops or bottoms driven by crowd emotion.
By watching these indicators, contrarian investors identify when sentiment is stretched — when the herd is too confident or too afraid — and act accordingly. It's not about rebelling for the sake of it. It's about knowing when the market is lying to itself.
400 years of market history tell the same story repeatedly: speculation drives prices to irrational extremes, and fear drives them back down. From the Dutch Tulip Mania of 1637 to the dot-com crash of 2000 and the 2008 financial crisis, every major bubble followed the same psychological arc.
Historical highs in speculation instruments have always been followed by bear markets. These downward trends were caused by market participants' fear of loss, which led them to sell — triggering the very crashes they feared. The crowd creates the conditions for its own destruction.
This pattern is not a historical curiosity. It is the operating environment ONE-SIGNAL was built for. Sentiment extremes — the peak of greed, the depth of fear — are not anomalies. They are recurring, measurable, and tradeable. Our system is calibrated to identify exactly these moments across five major asset classes.
Understanding this history is not academic. It is the foundation of the edge.
When quickly skimming the internet, one notices that there are countless trading signal providers. For many, the aim is to overwhelm subscribers with advertising and sell seminars, books, and lectures — as opposed to offering accurate trading signals.
ONE-SIGNAL is owner-operated and therefore fully independent. Our success depends entirely on our clients' success. There is no outside investor, no incentive to sell you something beyond the framework itself.
Founder and mastermind Ara Yalmanian has been regularly trading based on ONE-SIGNAL's principles for over 20 years. The system was built to trade his own capital — and it still does. At ONE-SIGNAL, we continuously track and refine our signals to maximise accuracy and effectiveness.
Rather than blindly betting against the crowd, we follow sentiment trends strategically — aligning with market momentum when it makes sense, and pivoting early when indicators show a shift is coming. This approach allows us not only to capture upside potential, but also to capitalise on downward trends. With proven results across multiple asset classes, ONE-SIGNAL helps you trade smarter — not harder.
Signal Format
One signal per asset. Everything you need to execute — and nothing you don't.
Example signal — Gold
One direction. No ambiguity.
Each signal is binary — LONG or SHORT. No "watch for" or "if conditions hold." The decision is already made.
Contained to one NYSE window.
Entry at the open, exit at the close. One trading window per day. No all-day monitoring required.
Risk defined before you enter.
Every signal includes a pre-set stop loss. Maximum risk is known before the trade is placed — no improvising under pressure.
Asset Coverage
Each asset is run through the same sentiment framework independently. Signals across assets do not influence each other.
S&P 500
US equity index. Highest liquidity. Sentiment data is deepest — VIX, put/call, and breadth all apply.
Gold
Safe haven asset. Fear-driven positioning extremes are common and historically revert with high consistency.
Silver
Higher beta precious metal. Crowd positioning in silver futures tends to overshoot — a strong contrarian signal environment.
Oil
Geopolitical and macro-driven. Sentiment extremes are frequent and often exaggerated by news flow — creating systematic opportunities.
Bitcoin
Retail-dominated market. Fear and greed cycles are compressed and intense — sentiment indicators perform strongly at extremes.
Track Record
Performance is not hypothetical. These figures reflect the same framework applied to live markets. Full signal log and methodology on the Performance page.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. These figures are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk.
View full performance dataCore gives you the full daily signal framework across all five assets from $49/month. 360 adds direct access to the strategist behind the system.